From September 2025 we placed real-money sports bets on Polymarket, betting against market movements in mispriced markets. The experiment ran for 8 months and was profitable. Every bet is publicly auditable on-chain.
View Full Betting Record →Every bet was placed as a $1 stake on Polymarket under @stupidgoal.atm — the "ATM" stands for Against The Market. Every result is publicly verifiable on-chain.
The approach targeted mispriced player and team markets, betting against the crowd when odds overreacted to recent results. Positions were entered using limit orders to capture favorable prices rather than taking available odds.
Polymarket introduced trading fees, making the strategy significantly less profitable for anyone following along. The full record of 900+ bets remains public on Polymarket for anyone to audit.
Real $1 bets placed on Polymarket across 8 months. Some months were negative — the edge showed over the full sample.
| Month | P/L |
|---|---|
| April 2026 | +$4.56 |
| March 2026 | +$15.40 |
| February 2026 | +$8.79 |
| January 2026 | +$11.35 |
| December 2025 | −$4.18 |
| November 2025 | −$1.25 |
| October 2025 | +$17.51 |
| September 2025 | +$4.50 |
Verify all results at polymarket.com/@stupidgoal.atm
The experiment is over, but the profiles are still active. Full betting record on Polymarket.